A Discussion About Risk

All credit to www.michaelcovel.com/2010/10/26/a-discussion-about-risk/

Robyn Williams: So what’s the risk? Last week we spoke to David Spiegelhalter about Paul the octopus and the maths of probability. This week, what’s behind his actual job, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge? (more…)

The average means nothing without the variance…

What does it take to join the big league?

All credit to www.michaelcovel.com/2010/10/25/winning-and-losing-in-life/

Once in a while, Jim Harbaugh [Football coach at Stanford] asks his Stanford players to name the one thing you have to do to make an NFL team. The answers come quickly: ‘You have to be talented.’ ‘You have to work hard.’ Nope, Jim says. A lot of guys are talented and work hard and never make it. ‘The one thing you have to do to make an NFL team,’ he says, ‘is take another man’s job away from him. And those men really like those jobs.’

“Still a man hears what he wants to hear. And disregards the rest.”

All credit to www.michaelcovel.com/2010/10/12/sticking-to-his-knitting/

“Still a man hears what he wants to hear. And disregards the rest.”
– The Boxer, by Paul Simon

A classic excerpt from an article about Bill Dunn:

“By following his original [trend following] system, just as he [Bill Dunn] has been doing for the last 34 years, Dunn proved unflappable in the face of turmoil. ‘The best I can do each day is to follow my rules,’ he says. ‘So if it didn’t work out today, big deal. There was no guarantee that it would work anyway. We never override the system.’ Not one discretionary trade since 1974? (Well, there was one during Y2K.) That’s practically unheard of. Is Dunn never gripped by a desire to take a flyer once in a while? ‘No,’ he insists. ‘What’s the point? Why do people think they’re smarter than the market long-term? What gives them that confidence? I guess people feel dumb if they can’t predict what the market is going to do in the short term. They’re too proud to admit they don’t know what to do when they’re wrong. They don’t have the capacity to understand the digits that are scrolling by on the bottom of the television. I don’t. It’s too much noise. That’s why we rely on our system.’ Dunn’s approach to the markets has always relied on logic, order and numbers, leaving bravado and emotion for the suckers.”

Those words are simple. Straightforward. Easy to understand. However, how many non-trend following traders, those who have no idea how trend following works yet, would pause their daily fundamental/news addictions to investigate the merits of Dunn’s wisdom? If those words are brand new to you, if that thinking sounds like alien-speak, how do you feel?

Article source: Mike Martin


“Lying here, during all this time after my own small fall, it has become my conviction that things mean pretty much what we want them to mean. We’ll pluck significance from the least consequential happenstance if it suits us and happily ignore the most flagrantly obvious symmetry between separate aspects of our lives if it threatens some cherished prejudice or cosily comforting belief; we are blindest to precisely whatever might be most illuminating.”
– from Transition, by Iain M. Banks

Ah, the flutterby